The global availability and increasing sales of EVs will put an end to the
“are they for real?” speculation.

Back in 2009, Pike Research said that the year 2012 would be a “make or break” year for
EVs as they transition from limited availability (both in volume and geography) to a viable
transportation option for consumers everywhere. We are standing by that prediction.
Despite a slower-than-expected start in EV sales, 2012 will likely see sufficient expansion
in model selections and global availability of electrified vehicles to establish the category’s
permanency. During 2012, Pike Research estimates that global PEV sales will surpass
257,000 units.

During 2012, the arrival of the first commercial PEVs from automotive stalwarts BMW,
Ford, Honda, Toyota, and Volvo, plus newcomers Coda and Fisker, will provide a greater
variety of vehicle choices to more parts of the world. Another dozen or more models will
be announced during the year, providing that there are no u-turns on the road to vehicle
electrification. The PEV manufacturers already in production will have availability in
volume throughout most major automotive markets, though countries in Latin America and
Africa will see fewer options. In 2013, the question will be, “Remember when we doubted if
EVs were for real?”

Car sharing services will expand the market for EVs and hybrids.
Car sharing is one of the hottest trends in transportation, with startups and established
rental companies launching commercial and peer-to-peer services. Services that enable
renting per hour and on demand fit well with EVs because the higher upfront cost of the
vehicles can be recovered through higher rates paid for short-term rentals. PEVs can
avoid the fees and restrictions that many cities are imposing on emissions from
transportation. EVs also tend to be smaller vehicles that are easier to park in the urban
areas that car sharing services are targeting.

Car sharing services that are focusing on appealing to young, environmentally oriented
urbanites are beginning to integrate EVs into their fleets. Most of the major car sharing
services will have at least one model of EV in their fleets by the end of 2012. Automakers
looking to maximize the visibility of the limited number of vehicles during their rollouts
are making vehicles available to car sharing and car rental agencies in the hopes that a
few hours behind the wheel of an EV will encourage some folks to become EV buyers.
Mass purchases from rental (and other) fleets will also help automakers in their march
towards increased production. Individuals who are eschewing vehicle ownership for
environmental reasons will be more likely to rent an EV than a gas-powered car when they
do need the temporary use of a vehicle.

Battery production will get ahead of vehicle production.
Manufacturers of lithium ion batteries in the United States spent 2011 readying new and
established factories for the expected surge in PEV sales. The 2009 American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act provided funding for scaling up production so that the United States
can compete with Japan, Korea, and China in EV batteries. Most of the award recipients
(including Saft, EnerDel, Johnson Controls, LG Chem, and Dow Kokam) have their
facilities fully online and ready to produce.

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